New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is likely to make its onset over Kerala around June 4, according to the latest forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), marking a slight delay from its normal arrival date of June 1.
The weather agency has indicated that conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for the monsoon's advance over Kerala and adjoining parts of southern India. Alongside the expected onset, the IMD has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds across parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and neighbouring regions over the coming days.
The delayed arrival comes after an earlier forecast had suggested that the monsoon could reach Kerala ahead of schedule in late May. However, changing atmospheric conditions and weaker-than-expected monsoon-supporting winds slowed its progress, forcing forecasters to revise the timeline multiple times.
Meteorologists now expect a significant increase in rainfall activity between June 3 and June 7, particularly over Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Several districts could witness intense downpours capable of causing localised flooding, waterlogging, traffic disruptions and reduced visibility.
The southwest monsoon is one of India's most important weather systems, delivering nearly 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall. Its arrival over Kerala marks the official beginning of the four-month rainy season that gradually advances across the rest of the country.
The timing and strength of the monsoon are closely watched because they influence agriculture, water availability, power generation and rural incomes. A large section of India's farmland continues to depend on seasonal rainfall for crop cultivation.
Weather experts have advised residents in affected regions to stay updated with local forecasts, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding, landslides and thunderstorm-related disruptions. Fishermen have also been urged to exercise caution as rough sea conditions may develop along parts of the western coast.
While the expected onset over Kerala will provide relief from intense pre-monsoon heat in several regions, meteorologists caution that weather conditions can evolve rapidly during the transition phase. The IMD is expected to issue further updates as the monsoon advances deeper into the Indian mainland.
As India prepares for the rainy season, the coming week will be closely watched by farmers, policymakers and millions of citizens whose livelihoods remain tied to the progress of the monsoon.
Kerala is considered the gateway for the southwest monsoon into India. Every year, meteorologists track the monsoon's arrival over the state because it marks the official beginning of the country's rainy season.
After reaching Kerala, the monsoon gradually advances northward and eastward, bringing rainfall to most parts of India over the next few weeks. The progress of the monsoon is closely monitored because it has a direct impact on agriculture, water reservoirs, hydroelectric power generation and rural livelihoods.
India receives nearly 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, making it one of the most important weather events of the year. A timely and well-distributed monsoon is generally considered beneficial for crop production, especially for kharif crops such as rice, maize, pulses and cotton.
Any significant delay, deficiency or uneven distribution of rainfall can affect farming output, food prices and overall economic activity, particularly in rural areas.