A warming patch of water thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean may soon begin influencing daily life across India.
Scientists are increasingly watching the development of El Nino, a natural climate pattern that can alter weather around the world. While it originates in the tropical Pacific, its effects often reach India through changes in the southwest monsoon, the annual rain-bearing system that supports the country's farms, reservoirs and water supplies.
Global organisations, including the World Economic Forum (WEF), have warned that the emerging El Nino could become more than just a weather event. Its ripple effects may be felt across agriculture, energy, transportation and food systems simultaneously.
For millions of Indian farmers, the monsoon is the most important season of the year. Nearly half of India's agricultural land still relies on rainfall rather than irrigation, making timely and adequate monsoon showers crucial for crops such as rice, pulses, soybean, cotton and maize.
If El Nino weakens rainfall or causes long dry spells, farmers may be forced to delay sowing, switch to less water-intensive crops or depend more heavily on irrigation. Crop yields could also suffer if higher temperatures combine with reduced rainfall during key growing periods.
The effects would extend beyond farms. Lower agricultural output can affect food supplies and put upward pressure on the prices of essential commodities, particularly pulses and cereals that form a staple part of Indian diets.
The consequences of a weaker monsoon are not limited to agriculture. Reduced rainfall can leave reservoirs and rivers with less water, affecting drinking water supplies and hydropower generation in some regions.
The issue of water shortage, something cities are already dealing with, is also bound to get worse.
At the same time, hotter-than-normal conditions often increase demand for cooling. That means greater use of fans, air conditioners and refrigeration, adding pressure to electricity networks that are already stretched during summer heatwaves.
India recorded an all-time peak power demand of around 265 gigawatts (GW) just last month.
India recorded a peak power demand of 242.77 GW in June 2025, while in May 2024, demand had touched 250 GW, which was the highest at the time.
The trend is clear.
If temperatures remain above normal and rainfall is patchy, power consumption could rise further, increasing pressure on electricity grids and fuel supplies.
Global experts have also highlighted risks to international shipping and supply chains.
El Nino has previously contributed to drought conditions in parts of Central America, affecting traffic along the Panama Canal, a vital trade route. Any disruption to global shipping can indirectly affect the movement of goods and commodities worldwide.
For India, El Nino is beyond just a climate phenomenon brewing in the Pacific Ocean. If it strengthens in the months ahead, its effects could be felt from farms to city power grids to household food budgets. It's no wonder that it's one of the most closely watched climate developments of the year so far.
Source: India Today