Allan Lichtman is known as the 'Nostradamus of US presidential elections' for accurately predicting nine of the past 10 elections. Now, he is preparing for his 11th presidential election prediction, which he will announce in early August.
As for Lichtman, he has been making US poll predictions for the last 40 years. The US presidential election takes place once every four years.
As a history professor at American University for fifty years, Lichtman developed the renowned "13 keys to the White House" method, which he uses to predict election results. This method consists of thirteen true/false questions, and if six or more keys go against the incumbent party, Lichtman predicts their defeat. If fewer than six went against it, it would win.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
TRUMP VS BIDEN IN 2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Additionally, 55% of all Americans view Trump's presidency as a success, compared to 44% who see it as a failure.
Interestingly, Lichtman gives no weight to running mate picks.
