Rupee Hits Record Low: The Indian rupee fell to a record low of 92.43 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, pressured by rising crude oil prices, strong demand for the US currency and continued foreign investor outflows.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.33 and slipped further to its fresh intra-day low of 92.43 against the dollar, down 18 paise from the previous close. The currency had already weakened on Thursday, touching an intra-day low of 92.36 before settling 24 paise lower at 92.25 against the greenback.
Forex traders said the rupee is under pressure due to global geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.
“Oil prices remained elevated after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is closed permanently till the resolution of the crisis. The dollar index also rose, European and Asian currencies all fell against the dollar," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
He added that the rupee would have weakened further in the absence of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.
“The rupee has remained vulnerable and in the absence of the RBI could have reached 93.00 levels," he said.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the rupee continues to face pressure amid global uncertainties. “The USD/INR pair is trading near the 92.00–92.50 range, reflecting continued pressure on the Indian rupee. Rising crude oil prices and safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty have placed emerging market currencies under pressure," he said.
According to him, the technical trend remains upward for the dollar against the rupee.
“The chart structure remains bullish with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows. A sustained move above 92.50 could strengthen bullish momentum toward fresh record highs," he added.
The main reason behind the rupee’s fall is the surge in global crude oil prices.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose nearly 5 per cent to $96.57 per barrel in futures trade. Concerns over supply disruptions have increased due to the escalating West Asia conflict.
Reports that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, have also pushed oil prices higher.
At the same time, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US currency against a basket of six currencies, was trading slightly higher at 99.77.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have also been selling Indian equities aggressively. According to exchange data, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 7,049.87 crore on a net basis on Thursday.
The main reason behind the rupee’s fall is the surge in global crude oil prices.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose nearly 5 per cent to $96.57 per barrel in futures trade. Concerns over supply disruptions have increased due to the escalating West Asia conflict.
Reports that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, have also pushed oil prices higher.
At the same time, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US currency against a basket of six currencies, was trading slightly higher at 99.77.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have also been selling Indian equities aggressively. According to exchange data, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 7,049.87 crore on a net basis on Thursday.
A falling rupee can directly impact household expenses.
Costlier fuel: India imports a large portion of its crude oil. When the rupee weakens, oil becomes more expensive in local currency terms. This may push up petrol and diesel prices. However, the fuel prices remain the same as of now, despite crude oil crossing $100 a barrel, compared with around $60 a few weeks ago.
Higher inflation: If fuel prices are increased, it raises transportation and logistics costs. This can make everyday goods such as vegetables, food items and consumer products more expensive.
Expensive foreign travel and education: A weaker rupee makes foreign travel, overseas education and international purchases more costly because more rupees are needed to buy dollars.
Higher import costs: India imports several goods such as electronics, machinery and chemicals. A weak currency increases the cost of these imports.
The fall in the rupee has also weighed on the stock market.
The BSE Sensex fell 560 points to 75,474.36, while the NSE Nifty declined 184 points to 23,454.70 in early trade.
Meanwhile, retail inflation also inched up. Government data released on Thursday showed that retail inflation rose to 3.21 per cent in February from 2.74 per cent in January, largely due to higher food prices.
If crude prices remain elevated and global uncertainties continue, the rupee could remain under pressure in the near term.
