Diplomacy is layered, exactly like the layers of an onion. What one sees on the outside is far removed from what makes the core. The same is true for the India-Bangladesh relationship.
India, which has been in favour of a Sheikh Hasina government in Dhaka, has faced stray boycott calls since the Awami League leader returned to power in the January parliamentary election.
Parties and individuals opposed to Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League have tried to give shape to an 'India Out' campaign on the lines of the one in the Maldives.
India-baiter Mohamed Muizzu won the Maldivian presidency with his 'India Out' campaign, and bilateral relations between the countries have nosedived since.
Even as some social media handles try to promote the "boycott India" sentiment, the Modi government on Monday allowed the export of 50,000 tonnes of onions, a key kitchen staple, to Bangladesh ahead of Ramzan and Eid.
Onion is a key ingredient, especially for dishes during the Ramzan period of feasting and fasting, which culminates in Eid celebrations.
Though onion exports are banned, the government made an exemption for two friendly countries -- Bangladesh and the UAE.
India banned the export of onions in December 2023, which resulted in a steep rise in the commodity in Bangladesh and several other countries.
In February, Al Jazeera reported how shops in Dhaka’s Panthapath area, which generally stocked Indian products, were refusing to take fresh deliveries.
Staff at several shops in Dhaka and Chittagong told the Voice of America in February that they saw a drop in sales of Indian products like cooking oil, processed foods, toiletry, cosmetics and clothing.
The online campaign in Bangladesh, led mostly by the Bangladeshi diaspora and those in exile, has led to the boycott of Indian products in some localities, according to reports. Toxic anti-India posts have surged online.
One of the key drivers of the 'Boycott India' campaign is Paris-based Pinaki Bhattacharya.
Pinaki, a trained doctor who describes himself as an "exiled blogger, online activist and human rights defender from Bangladesh", announced the 'India Out' campaign in mid-January. Pinaki, who once ran a pharmaceutical company, was allegedly hounded out of Bangladesh in 2019.
An India Today analysis of over 4,000 tweets shows #BoycottIndianProducts along with some other low-volume hashtags like #IndiaOut and #BoycottIndia started gaining traction on social media platforms in Bangladesh a week after Hasina took oath.
Online news portal Dhaka Post reported in March that 12 Bangladeshi parties had banded together to call for a boycott of Indian products.
The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, and the main Islamist party, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, weren't among those giving the boycott call.
The impact of a boycott of products wouldn't be much economically as exports to Bangladesh were 2.6% of India's total exports in 2022-2023. However, it is the sentiment that Delhi needs to be alert to, given the historical ties between the neighbours.
India not only helped liberate Bangladesh, it also gave shelter to Sheikh Hasina and her sister after the assassination of her father and Bangladesh President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
China has been desperately trying to woo the government in Bangladesh, whose location is strategically important.
People, however, have said that there isn't much resonance to the 'Boycott India' campaign on the ground.
"We can't see any such campaign or its impact on the ground in Bangladesh," Muntassir Mamoon, Bangabandhu Chair of Chittagong University, tells IndiaToday.In.
It is more of an online phenomenon.
"There is a kind of anti-Indianism always prevalent, but the current boycott India campaign is very social media-centric," Smruti Pattanaik of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) tells IndiaToday.In.
Veteran journalist and Bangladesh expert Suman Bhattacharya uses the term 'Mexico Syndrome' to explain this.
"This is what happens with any small country that has a bigger neighbour, which is economically, politically and socio-culturally dominant. So, India-Bangladesh relations should always be seen via the prism of US-Mexico Syndrome," Bhattacharya told IndiaToday.In earlier.
He attributes some anti-India sentiment in Nepal, Maldives and Bangladesh to the 'Mexico Syndrome'.
Smruti Pattanaik says there is an attempt to project that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has retained power because of India.
"Those calling for a boycott of Indian products need to look at the bilateral trade and the geographical location of Bangladesh," both create interdependence, says Pattanaik.
The Bangladesh watcher says India has no reason to worry because of the boycott campaign.
"The political parties reported to have called for a boycott of Indian products have very little strength on the ground. Second, Bangladesh imports essential items from India. These imports and exports are market-driven. No one is doing a favour to the other," she adds.
Dhaka-based Muntassir Mamoon outrightly rejects any significance to the boycott campaign.
"With Ramadan and Eid approaching, we are more concerned about onions from India," the veteran academician tells IndiaToday.In.
"The demand and prices of four food items -- sugar, dates, gram and onions -- generally see an increase during Ramadan and the government keeps a close eye on them so that there is no problem during this season," says Muntassir Mamoon.
"The Bangladesh government has brought the price of cooking oil under control. The price of dates is a bit higher despite a relaxation in import duties. And the government is facing a difficult situation on onions," says Professor Mamoon.
Despite trying, the government has failed to tame the prices of onions, says Professor Mamoon. "There is domestic production of onions in Bangladesh and there are imports too. Despite that, the prices are not cooling," he says.
Against such a situation, the export of 50,000 tonnes of onions to Bangladesh ahead of Ramzan and Eid is significant.
The government has permitted exports of 64,400 tonnes of onion to the UAE and Bangladesh through the National Cooperative Exports Ltd (NCEL), according to notifications of the commerce ministry.
While the export of 50,000 tonnes of onion is permitted to Bangladesh, shipments of 14,400 tonnes were allowed to the UAE.
Onion is a politically-sensitive commodity and high prices have brought down a state government in India once.
The Centre keeps tabs on its prices and has barred exports. It just made an exception for the UAE and Bangladesh, which are close to the Modi government.
This could be considered onion diplomacy and a gift.
Muntassir Mamoon blames the high onion prices on traders syndicate in Bangladesh, adding that when it comes to Bangladesh "no rules of economics apply".
Bangladesh prefers importing onions from India because of the lower transport cost.
"The quality of Bangladesh onions is better, and that is the reason why they command a higher price in comparison to the crop from India. People generally prefer Indian onions because they are a bit cheaper than the Bangladeshi variety," says Mamoon.
IDSA's Smruti Pattanaik explains that Bangladesh's economy leans heavily on garment exports, and it is dependent on India for cotton and cotton yarn.
Also, due to geographical proximity, importing products from India makes more economic sense. India borders Bangladesh on all three sides.
However, it should be noted that it is China, and not India, that was the top exporter to Bangladesh, according to 2022 data. In fact, the total worth of China's exports to Bangladesh was almost double that of India's.
Also, Sheikh Hasina has leveraged Bangladesh's geostrategic importance, unlike the leader of any other small country.
China in Bangladesh is a relatively new reality and Indians should be cautious about chest-thumping and being seen as the bullying big brother.
Though some Bangladeshis suffer from the 'Mexican Syndrome', which might result in 'Boycott India' and 'India out' campaigns from time to time, the two countries have a shared history and historical ties. The layers of relationship and diplomacy are layered like the onions India is gifting Bangladesh ahead of Ramzan and Eid.
