In a world tilting precariously between polycrisis and opportunity, India is often hailed as the next great story. It is a nation of contradictions and immense promise: a thriving democracy with over a billion aspirations, a robust economy hurtling toward global prominence, and a powerful military with growing regional influence. But behind the optics of superpower ambition lies a looming strategic flaw. India is attempting to fight on too many fronts at once—economically, militarily, socially, financially, and diplomatically. In doing so, it risks undermining its very rise.
Great powers are not built on breadth alone but on strategic depth. India must now adopt the wisdom of focus. Not to retreat from ambition, but to prioritize. To consolidate. To master one front at a time. And in that mastery, lies the foundation for the next.
India’s economy is expanding at a healthy clip, clocking in a projected growth rate of 6.8% in FY2025, according to the IMF. It is already the world’s fifth-largest economy and poised to surpass Germany by 2027. Yet this growth is precarious, propped up more by consumption than productivity, and riddled with internal inconsistencies.
Unemployment remains a silent emergency. Urban unemployment in April 2025 was 9.2%, while rural hovered at 7.5%. Youth unemployment is even worse, with estimates placing it over 20% for graduates under 30. At the same time, the manufacturing sector contributes a meager 17% to GDP. Compare this to China, where manufacturing once powered over 30% of its economy.
Private investment is sluggish, hovering at around 29% of GDP—well below the 34% highs of the early 2000s. While India boasts a PLI scheme and ambitions in semiconductors, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen, the ground reality remains harsh. Infrastructure bottlenecks, power shortages, red tape, and land acquisition hurdles keep foreign and domestic investors cautious.
Instead of doubling down on core sectors—such as MSMEs, agriculture, digital services, and logistics—India is trying to simultaneously lead in moon missions, quantum computing, AI revolutions, and deep-sea mining.
India doesn’t need ten ambitions. It needs three well-executed ones.
Geopolitically, India is situated in a hostile neighborhood. It faces two nuclear-armed adversaries and an unstable belt of smaller nations subject to great power interference.
To the north, China remains an aggressive and unpredictable neighbor. Despite the Galwan clash of 2020 and subsequent disengagement talks, over 60,000 Chinese troops remain mobilized near the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Beijing has been building border infrastructure at a feverish pace, and its forays into Arunachal Pradesh and Doklam are not isolated moves—they’re long-term tests of India’s resolve.
To the west, Pakistan continues its decades-long strategy of asymmetric warfare. Cross-border terrorism, drone smuggling of arms, and cyber propaganda are daily threats. Although the formal war fronts are dormant, the proxy war is alive.
To complicate matters, smaller nations like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar are either slipping into China's strategic orbit or facing their own internal strife. India's borders with Myanmar are under strain from the civil war, with spillover risks of insurgency and refugees. Nepal's political tilt and Sri Lanka's economic vulnerability make them fertile ground for strategic competition.
Meanwhile, India's defense modernization is painfully slow. SIPRI reports place India's defense budget at $75 billion—third-highest in the world. Yet more than half of this is consumed by salaries and pensions. Indigenous platforms like the Tejas fighter, Arjun tank, and INS Vikrant face delays and cost overruns. India still imports 60% of its military hardware, heavily reliant on a distracted Russia.
India is trying to play a global role—as a QUAD partner, Indian Ocean power, and global South leader. But it hasn’t even fully secured its borders.
Before you project power, you must protect your periphery.
India’s strength has always been its diversity—religious, linguistic, ethnic, and ideological. But in recent years, that diversity has morphed into division. The pluralistic fabric that once made India a civilizational beacon is fraying under the weight of polarization.
Religious tensions have deepened. The 2023 Pew survey revealed that over 60% of Indians feel that interfaith relations have deteriorated. Hate speech, communal riots, and digital misinformation have created an atmosphere of suspicion and fear.
Caste-based disparities persist. Dalits and tribal communities make up 25% of the population but remain grossly underrepresented in urban salaried jobs and elite educational institutions. Despite affirmative action, social mobility remains elusive.
Regional tensions are also escalating. Language battles over Hindi, federal disputes between state and central governments, and contentious resource-sharing agreements have inflamed regionalism.
And then there is the digital divide. While urban India races ahead, rural India lags far behind. Only 38% of rural households have reliable internet access, compared to 70% in urban India.
Without social cohesion, no amount of GDP or military might can keep a country whole.
Nation-building is not just highways and airbases. It’s harmony.
India’s macroeconomic indicators appear solid at a glance. Inflation is manageable at around 4.8%. Foreign exchange reserves stand at $640 billion. The fiscal deficit is targeted at 5.1% of GDP. But dig deeper, and cracks begin to show.
Public debt is over 85% of GDP—alarmingly high for a developing economy. The tax-to-GDP ratio is a stagnant 10.9%, far behind peers like Brazil (33.5%) and South Africa (27.5%). Despite GST, compliance remains patchy, and high informal sector participation limits revenue.
Meanwhile, electoral populism is driving a new welfare culture—free electricity, cash transfers, subsidies—with no new revenue streams to fund them. Non-performing assets (NPAs) among MSMEs are creeping up again as COVID-era loans turn sour.
India’s fiscal room for big bets on defense, infrastructure, and health is being eaten away by unsustainable subsidies and uncollected taxes.
A strong economy must be matched by a stronger fiscal spine.
India’s foreign policy faces its most delicate test in its immediate neighborhood. The traditional doctrine of "Neighborhood First" is being challenged by China’s aggressive outreach, Pakistan’s persistent hostility, and internal instability in smaller neighbors.
China: Needs to be handled with deterrence and diplomacy. Build permanent infrastructure along the LAC, but also strengthen alliances with Vietnam, Japan, and Australia. QUAD must prioritize economic and tech cooperation over military posturing.
Pakistan: Requires a policy of controlled containment. Strengthen surveillance and border defenses, but avoid escalation. Explore backchannel diplomacy, focusing on water sharing, trade corridors, and anti-terror commitments.
Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka: These nations share cultural and economic proximity. Engage them with soft power—education, health, rail, energy, and media diplomacy. Avoid coercion; offer dignity.
Myanmar: Act as a stabilizer. Build border fencing, humanitarian corridors, and cooperate with ASEAN for a peace framework.
India must not open every geopolitical front. It must create concentric circles of stability—inner (SAARC), middle (ASEAN, Gulf), and outer (QUAD, G20).
One of the most critical and escalating threats to India’s security is the deepening alliance between China and Pakistan. What was once a transactional relationship is now a comprehensive strategic partnership, with direct implications for India’s sovereignty, regional influence, and national security.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), valued at over $62 billion, is the backbone of this alliance. Stretching from Xinjiang to Gwadar, it runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, directly challenging India's territorial claims. China has not only ignored India's objections but has deployed thousands of workers, engineers, and even security personnel in these disputed areas.
Pakistan has become China’s arms client and tech recipient. Nearly 70% of Pakistan’s major conventional weapons imports now come from China, according to SIPRI. This includes advanced UAVs, submarines, missile systems, and fighter aircraft like the JF-17, jointly developed. China has also supported Pakistan's nuclear program historically and continues to provide strategic cover at the UN against terror designations for actors based in Pakistan.
On the diplomatic front, China and Pakistan coordinate closely at the UN, OIC, and regional platforms to counter India’s stance on Kashmir, terrorism, and even water treaties. Cybersecurity cooperation and intelligence-sharing are also believed to be strengthening, with PLA-linked networks reportedly assisting Pakistan in digital surveillance and disinformation campaigns.
The military aspect is more dangerous. In recent years, coordinated pressure on both the western and eastern fronts has become a potential reality. In June 2020, during the Galwan clash, Pakistan increased shelling across the LoC. The message was clear: India must be prepared for a two-front war.
India's strategic planners have long feared this scenario. But now, it’s not theoretical. With Chinese naval presence increasing in the Arabian Sea and Gwadar port, and Pakistan leasing islands for possible Chinese monitoring installations, India is increasingly being encircled by a hostile dyad.
India must respond with layered strategy: improve infrastructure on both borders, deepen partnerships with Central Asia and ASEAN, and invest in space, cyber, and underwater capabilities. Above all, India must stop stretching itself thin.
A two-headed dragon requires a single, focused spear.
India’s power lies not in multiplying missions but in sequencing them. Here is one possible roadmap:
India doesn’t need to be everywhere. It needs to be decisive somewhere.
The time has come for India to choose depth over dispersion, clarity over chaos, sequencing over simultaneity. A nation that tries to run a marathon and a sprint at the same time ends up finishing neither. India must resist the temptation of doing everything and instead commit to doing a few things with excellence.
Because a thousand scattered sparks will not light the way. But a focused flame—that can ignite a future.
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